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When will vulcanism and tectonic movement on earth end? (self.askscience)
submitted 4d ago by ArminiusGermanicus
As I understand it, the inner earth is still hot from its creation and from radioactive decay. Both heat sources are not replenished, so it should cool down with time.

I would assume that at some point the earth crust will become so thick that vulcanism and tectonic movement ends. After how many billion years will that be, approximately?
CrustalTrudger 393 points 4d ago
A lot depends on the exact rate of cooling, but it's less about the crust thickening and more about the mantle becoming too cool for tectonics to continue. Based on at least one model, the mantle is expected to cool to the point where tectonics like we see on Earth today will stop around 0.9 billion years in the future (Sleep, 2007). That basically overlaps with estimations of when all but single cellular life on Earth will die.
Ishana92 51 points 4d ago
That wiki timeline article is just so depressing once you go far enough
Masterjason13 36 points 3d ago
I figure either Humanity will be dead, or so advanced that we can somehow push Earth’s orbit out a bit to keep it habitable (or we just move on in the universe and don’t care enough to save a planet that may not even be remembered as the birthplace of humanity that far in the future.)
DrSmirnoffe 12 points 3d ago
Even if we're able to pull an Archimedes, that won't help the loss of vulcanism and tectonics. If anything, we'd probably need to reforge the whole damn planet, which would probably be less economical than building a fleet of vast space habitats with more efficient recycling methods.
Krambambulist 32 points 3d ago
by that time we might have evolved into a totally different species. we might be uploading our brains to computers and traveling to other galaxies on our spaceships. or we might be extinct in a 100 years. trying to predict humanities state so far in the future is utterly pointless.
LoreChano 8 points 3d ago
I think it's certain we won't be biological beings anymore by then, maybe intelligent life is just a kickstart and machines are the real deal in the universe, considering how superior in every single way a machine can be compared to biological life. Maybe there's an even more advanced stage after machine "life" that we are not even aware of. Trying to predict what a civilization can become so far into the future falls into some deep philosophical questions that become pretty hard to wrap your head around.
SolomonBlack 1 points 3d ago
Well we won’t be uploading anything at any point unless you have a scientific basis for “the soul” and how it can be transferred to a computer.

Otherwise you are just making a digital copy and you will keep on being you after that.
xrelaht 2 points 3d ago
It’s not that complicated to adjust Earth’s orbit over that time scale: we’d need to pass a large mass (like an asteroid) in front of us every few thousand years. That’s a capability we might have by the end of the century. IMO, the bigger question is whether we survive long enough for it to matter.
[deleted] 2 points 3d ago
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HeHH1329 23 points 4d ago
Plate tectonics also requires the presence of liquid water IIRC (source). So when solar radiation is increased to the point that the Ocean is completely evaporated, plate tectonics will stop. That'll happen roughly 1 billion years from now according to Wikipedia.

But hotspot volcanism will likely persist much longer. Radioactive nuclei are still there in Earth's core in large quantities. Earth's internal heat will have to find a way out instead of keep being build up. Today's Venus still has hotspot volcanism but no plate tectonics.

Since the Earth is 20-25% more massive than Venus, the radioactive elements are also more abundant, so the generation of heat will last longer. Earth will likely suffer the same fate billions of years from now.

Edit: added a source about liquid water and plate tectonics.
Ashmedai 11 points 4d ago
> Plate tectonics also requires the presence of liquid water IIRC.

What's the explanation for that?
HeHH1329 28 points 4d ago
Water can combine with rocks chemically by a process called "mineral hydration". One of the reactions of mineral hydration, called "serpentinization", greatly reduces the viscosity and friction of heated rocks, causing the rocks to be malleable and moving at an extremely slow speed. at a certain range of depth in Earth's mantle called asthenosphere. This is the underlying mechanic of plate tectonics. Without the presence of water, the asthenosphere will lose its malleability and plate tectonics will cease.
chilehead 3 points 3d ago
Could tectonics be started on Venus if we introduced a large quantity of water to the surface?
forams__galorams 3 points 3d ago
Nicely put, though interestingly the hydration doesn’t even need to occur through serpentinisation or other hydrous minerals. In fact, serpentine and various other ‘dense hydrated magnesium silicate’ (DHMS) minerals are unstable above 1000° C and break down into other things; this translates to a depth of about 200 km in the mantle, which is only about half of the upper mantle. DHMS breakdown is a large part of what releases water from the downgoing slab in a subduction zone, which then fluxes into the overlying mantle wedge and allows melting to occur, thus creating the volcanic front associated with subduction zones. General idea shown here for those not familiar.

As for the rest of the mantle, the lower mantle has a lot more depth (you don’t get to the outer core until ~2900 km) and it’s believed to also convect. It manages to do so because olivine, pyroxene and their equivalent high-pressure phases (eg. β-olivine or γ-spinel aka ringwoodite) can accommodate H₂O into their crystal lattices even though they are anhydrous minerals (whereas serpentine is not serpentine without H₂O as part of its structure). How it works for olivine, pyroxene etc: Rather than having dedicated OH^- sites like hydrous minerals do, direct replacement of Mg²^+ with 2H^+ occurs in Mg-silicates; or coupled replacement of H^+ and Al³^+ replaces Si⁴^+ in Al-bearing silicates. Olivine may also accommodate OH^- in place of O atoms.

The accommodations are not exactly huge: β-olivine has been shown to incorporate up to 4000 ppm H₂O (0.4 wt%), but over the whole mantle this adds up to create the viscosity change that you described, making the mantle malleable enough to undergo constant continuous deformation with applied stress, ie. it convects despite being solid.

Perhaps also worth mentioning how mantle melting that occurs below mid-ocean ridges essentially transports water from the mantle into the melt generated and much of this volatile content is then degassed when the most buoyant portion of melt is erupted onto the seafloor. The residue of (mostly) olivine and pyroxene that never got melted in this generation of new oceanic lithosphere (ie. the stuff sitting underneath the newly formed basaltic crust) is now effectively dehydrated and so is more rigid than before, leading to the mechanical boundary between lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere. So the whole dehydration process serves to reinforce plate structure as the plates are being made.
CrustalTrudger 6 points 4d ago
If Sleep's modeling is right, plate tectonics would have shut off before then anyways.
HeHH1329 4 points 4d ago
But these two specific time points are not that far from each other, in a geological sense. ~~Plus, the radioactive elements are mostly stored in Earth's core rather than the mantle.~~ We probably know less about Earth's core than the future evolution of the Sun. So there are always large errors in the timescale of Earth's inevitable cooling.
loki130 4 points 3d ago
Radioisotopes like uranium and thorium are lithophilic, so they are mostly mixed into the rocky mantle rather than the metallic core. ~~But by my reading Sleep's paper does give 2 billion years as a high estimate based on different assumptions~~--though I've also seen a similar spread in the estimates for the loss of Earth's oceans and extinction of the biosphere.

edit: Actually I may have misread what Sleep's 2 billion years figure refers to but I did remember this other paper giving a figure of about 1.45 billion years https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1342937X18302041
CrustalTrudger 5 points 3d ago
>plus, the radioactive elements are mostly stored in Earth's core rather than the mantle.

This is incorrect. Due primarily to planetary differentiation processes (e.g., this discussion), the bulk of radioactive elements are in the crust and mantle, with extremely limited radioactive elements in the core (e.g., the review by O'Neil et al., 2020).
naghi32 62 points 4d ago
Edit: What I said below turns out to be untrue, since the atmosphere does a good job on protecting against charged particles as well, maybe even better than the magnetic field.

(text kept for the sake of context )

One thing to note here is that we don't want the earth to cool faster, since as it cools it will lose it's magnetic field, so no protection against charged particles and radiation from outer space, making it unlivable ( mostly ).

But since the time to cool is so large, it's not the deciding factor, unless we find a way to cool it faster, maybe by extracting massive amounts of heat from the core and radiating it into space under various forms .
CrustalTrudger 50 points 4d ago
> since as it cools it will lose it's magnetic field, so no protection against charged particles and radiation from outer space, making it unlivable ( mostly ).

The role of an intrinsic magnetic field in maintaining planetary atmospheres is a topic of conversation here often, but in general, this statement is not really accurate. See any number of prior comments and discussions, e.g, 1, 2, 3, or 4.
mglyptostroboides 35 points 3d ago
Consider the fact that, during magnetic field reversals, the Earth is intermittently without a magnetic field for thousands of years at a time. This has happened at least a few times while human beings walked the Earth. It never coincidences with a mass extinction.
ShadowPsi 13 points 3d ago
Also consider Venus. Hardly any magnetic field at all, but a massive atmosphere.
naghi32 3 points 3d ago
I avoided the topic about the atmosphere exactly for this reason.

However charged particles and radiation that will pass thru the atmosphere without a magnetic field deflecting them and hitting the earth will be quite deadly to life.
mfb- 8 points 3d ago
Everything that can make it through the atmosphere has such a high initial energy that the magnetic field isn't providing protection anyway.

A magnetic field is useful if you have no other protection - that's interesting for people on the ISS and many satellites in low Earth orbit. If you have an atmosphere then you don't need a magnetic field.
foospork 17 points 3d ago
I really like the way you put your retraction at the top, and then left the original text. It shows intellectual integrity.

Thanks: I learned from that. I’m going to mimic this when I need it.
dukesdj 8 points 3d ago
> One thing to note here is that we don't want the earth to cool faster, since as it cools it will lose it's magnetic field, so no protection against charged particles and radiation from outer space, making it unlivable ( mostly ).

Just a point on this. It is not the temperature that drives the dynamo but the rate of cooling. It could be expected that if you increase the rate of cooling the magnetic field would actually become stronger. Of course, there is a finite amount of heat energy in the system so you would strengthen the field at the cost of its lifespan.
BornAgain20Fifteen 3 points 3d ago
> will stop around 0.9 billion years in the future (Sleep, 2007). That basically overlaps with estimations of when all but single cellular life on Earth will die

So we are alive during the tail end of life on Earth?
percolater 4 points 3d ago
I’d say we’re alive right in the middle of life on earth.

0.9bya, the most advanced life forms on earth were algae and sponges.
forams__galorams 2 points 3d ago
The timescale is of course vast, but I kind of assumed it would be more so. I wouldn’t have thought that the current mode of plate tectonics is like two thirds of the way through its lifetime already…0.9 Ga sounds like only one more supercontinent left in the bag!
Utilitarian_Proxy 2 points 4d ago
Neat! Where would the moon be by then? Assuming the Giant Impact hypothesis and it currently is slowly bouncing away. Is there any thermal aspect to be considered in calculations for the rate of lift and separation, or is the modelling unaffected by heat?
loki130 12 points 3d ago
The recession of the moon isn't due to any "bouncing" effect and doesn't require that we accept the giant impact--we've measured the current recession rate directly. It is a result of tidal interactions between the moon and Earth, and so exactly how it plays out depends a bit on Earth's future tidal properties, but our general expectation is that it will never leave Earth's orbit completely and instead will eventually reach a point of mutual tidal-locking: Earth and moon both constantly facing each other. On its own this would be stable, but the tidal influence of the sun will sap energy from the system and cause the bodies to spiral into each other and collide (if not engulfed by the expanding sun first).
dukesdj 10 points 3d ago
> our general expectation is that it will never leave Earth's orbit completely and instead will eventually reach a point of mutual tidal-locking: Earth and moon both constantly facing each other. On its own this would be stable, but the tidal influence of the sun will sap energy from the system and cause the bodies to spiral into each other and collide (if not engulfed by the expanding sun first).

This is not quite correct. Even neglecting the Solar evolution, the Earth-Moon system can never reach two body tidal equilibrium. The primary reason being that the two-body tidal equilibrium point is beyond half the hill radius where the Moon would become dynamically unstable due to the influence of the Solar gravitational potential leading to it being stripped from the Earth (Adams and Bloch 2016).
loki130 2 points 3d ago
Goddammit, last time I brought this up someone managed to convince me it wouldn't get that far out
CrustalTrudger 2 points 4d ago
That's covered in the hypothetical timeline linked from wikipedia.
MCPtz 1 points 3d ago
Year 2 million:

> The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.

The damage we do now, will probably last beyond our civilization.
pds314 1 points 3d ago
I would be very cautious speculating about what 900 million years of evolution, including the evolution of the current second most dominant group of land vertebrates by biomass (humans, #1 is cows), and any plants we might genetically modifying, can do in terms of changing photosynthesis methods and even carbon sources. We seem to be pretty good at finding non-aerobic carbon to use NOW (possibly a bit too good) and there's no indication that C4 photosynthesis is the most efficient possible way to obtain aerobic carbon. Additionally, aquatic life has access to very high amounts of dissolved CO2. You will not be able to grow a field of corn in 900 million years, but that doesn't mean there won't be something alive at that point that can survive in those low CO2 levels. Keep in mind what the Earth was like 900 million years ago and every change since then.
johnnyringo771 15 points 3d ago
One of the ways a planet or body has ongoing geological activity is called tidal heating.

Essentially, the gravity in a system with two objects, with one in an elliptical orbit around the other can cause friction and internally heat the objects.

So if I understand correctly, Earth's moon heats the earth's core up slightly, even though it's nearly circular in orbit.
forams__galorams 18 points 3d ago
You’re not wrong, but this is fairly negligible for Earth as it’s orders of magnitude less than the primordial and radiogenic heat sources which drive mantle convection, plate tectonics, hot spot volcanism etc. Tidal heating of the Earth makes up less than 1% of the internal heat budget, primordial and radiogenic sources about half each (calculations of which of those two is slightly more important differ depending on which research you look at).

Tidal heating is far more important for a body like Io, the innermost Jovian moon. It’s orbit traverses huge variations through the absolutely monstrous gravitational field of Jupiter, so it’s insides get significantly squished and heated. Tallest volcanic plumes in the solar system is a title currently held by Io.
dukesdj 3 points 3d ago
Only 5.5% of the tidal dissipation from the Sun and Moon occurs in the solid Earth tides (Munk and Wunsch 1998). So most almost all of the tidal heating is actually going into the oceans (most of which is due to bottom friction in the boundary layer).
floridawhiteguy -12 points 3d ago
Probably not until the earth is enveloped by the sun in a few billion years...

Radioactive decay may not be the only driver of core heat; it's quite possible there's some sort of active nucleosynthesis happening which we haven't observed directly, can't measure and don't yet understand.
clauclauclaudia 2 points 3d ago
Wait what? What is the possible mechanism here?
[deleted] 1 points 1d ago
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