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What's going on with SCOTUS and gerrymandering? (self.OutOfTheLoop)
submitted 3d ago by Vitruviansquid1
I've been noticing articles here and there on reddit and news websites saying that SCOTUS has been forcing gerrymandered states to redraw districts here and there. I think it started with a ruling regarding Alabama? (link to a news article here: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/08/1181002182/supreme-court-voting-rights)

Is it true that SCOTUS has been consistently un-gerrymandering Republican gerrymandered districts?

Does this mean the next election will probably be a big blowout victory for Democrats in the House of Representatives?
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TheWizardMus 51 points 3d ago
Answer: this ruling is based on Racial Gerrymandering and not Political Gerrymandering, if we were to form a hypothetical state, West Dakota, with 20 districts and a 50/50 split of Republicans and Democrats and a 50/50 split of Black People and White People(using only 2 groups for simplicity) a hypothetical Gerrymandered district map that puts all the Democrats or Republicans into just 5 districts would be entirely legal, but a similar map that puts all the Black or White people in 5 districts wouldn't. That's the ruling that was just upheld and how it's been for quite some time.

Now the fight to prove whether or not a map is Politically or Racially Gerrymandered in a court of law to get it thrown out or upheld is VERY lengthy and while I stress I am not an expert, I wouldn't expect a slew of new maps before the next election.
biasedNeutrality 26 points 3d ago
Also worth noting that Ohio had their maps ruled unconstitutional and instead of drawing new ones they kept submitting unconditional ones until the clock ran out and they had to use the gerrymandered versions.

I would imagine the same playbook will be used in Alabama, Louisiana, and New York as there is no penalty for it.

Also even with the changes Louisiana and Alabama would likely pick up 2 Democratic seats at best.
Dornith 3 points 2d ago
It's the old, "[The justice] has made his decision; now let him enforce it!"
sumg 1 points 1d ago
> I would imagine the same playbook will be used in Alabama, Louisiana, and New York as there is no penalty for it.

It's worth noting that what's going on in New York is different from what's going on in the Southern states. In the Southern states, there is the issue with racial segregation that has been described previously. In New York, there has been a recent state supreme court change which will likely negate a previous ruling that forced New York to draw a relatively impartial map instead of the severe gerrymander they wanted to draw. In all likelihood, New York will switch from the impartial map to a severely gerrymandered one by the next election.

All of the these decisions, if implemented, would likely benefit Democrats in the next election. A number of red states are having their severely gerrymandered maps thrown out, which will force them to draw slightly less severely gerrymandered maps which will likely result in an extra Democratic district or two in each state affected. Meanwhile, in New York a fairly impartial map (though still leaning Democratic due to the make-up of the state) will turn into a severe Democratic gerrymander, likely helping the Democrats pick up 4-5 seats in the next election.

It's a big story because of how close the representation of the House of Representatives is in this session. Suffice it to say that if the maps that will likely be put in place due to these rulings were in place in 2022, Democrats would have won an extremely narrow majority.
siameseslim 1 points 1d ago
Is there an overlap in red lined areas and gerrymandered districts. I am in NC and it feels that way, but I don't know if it actually is.
[deleted] 6 points 3d ago
[removed]
mariosunny 8 points 2d ago
You didn't answer OP's question.
CheshireKetKet 0 points 2d ago
Edited
I_am_the_night 2 points 2d ago
Yup, Republicans decided against updating and changing their positions to win more votes in lieu of working to reduce the number of voters allowed to vote against them.
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