What's the potential write-up situation about? Depending on what it is I could see that holding you back. Attendance especially. But I really have no idea! Hopefully they'll decide soon and you won't have to be in suspense.

Gonna have to be honest here, I wouldn’t place my bets on you getting promoted. This isn’t meant to be rude, but you need to see the outside perspective. The first barista mentioned: almost definitely last place for the promotion as that’s just not enough time. You, though? Probably third. Why? The seasoned barista is second/first depending on their military situation, and the annoying girl (who you described in a way that I consider unprofessional when discussing a co-worker) is also probably 2nd/1st in line for the promo because she doesn’t have a write up where she made an unprofessional joke about a coworker.
What I’m seeing from this post & your write up is a repetitive lack of professionalism when talking about your coworkers, and that probably extends to when you talk TO them & potentially contributes to a store with gossip/rumors/an unhealthy environment. As someone who doesn’t know you personally, or the situation at your store, this could be entirely wrong - all of us have described a coworker in an unprofessional manner to friends/family - so take my judgement with a grain of salt.

I really hope people from your store don’t read this, including management. You overtly self identified yourself here in a bad way. This post and the way you think and talk about your coworkers could cost you the promotion.